In the financial landscape, the interplay between macroeconomic factors and asset prices is pivotal. This relationship has become increasingly evident in the recent shifts witnessed in the pricing of risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. The change was largely triggered by the latest US inflation report, which highlighted a significant rise in inflation rates from February to March, moving from 3.2% to 3.5%. This uptick was particularly noted in the ‘Super Core’ measure, which excludes food, energy, and housing costs and soared to 4.8% year-on-year in March. This measure is closely monitored by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and has stirred doubts about the committee’s earlier predictions regarding interest rate cuts.
Initially, the market had expected the FOMC to announce up to seven 25 basis point cuts by 2024, a stark contrast to the FOMC’s more conservative forecast of just three cuts. The discrepancy between market expectations and the FOMC’s stance has injected uncertainty into the financial markets, influencing not just traditional securities but extending to digital assets as well.
Moreover, the surge in US bond yields, which have climbed to 4.6% for the US 10-year treasury, has concurrently strengthened the US Dollar index. This, in turn, has exerted pressure on commodity currencies, with the Australian dollar depreciating nearly 3% over the week. Such macroeconomic shifts have sent ripples through the cryptocurrency markets, which have experienced significant volatility. Higher-risk cryptocurrencies have faced the brunt of this volatility, manifesting in notable price declines.
The geopolitical landscape has also played a crucial role, with escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran, adding to the market’s unease and impacting global investment flows. These factors have collectively fueled a risk-off sentiment among investors, pivoting attention towards more stable investments.
This shift is evident on the OTC desks, where there’s been a noticeable surge in the demand for stablecoins such as USDC and USDT. This surge underscores a broader trend of risk aversion among investors, overshadowing other significant events in the crypto sphere, such as the upcoming Bitcoin halving. The halving event, expected in just a few days, historically significant for impacting Bitcoin’s supply and potentially its price, has taken a backseat to more immediate economic concerns.
In the midst of these shifts, trading strategies have leaned heavily towards risk reduction. Enquiries for longer-tail assets have slowed, and the trading activities that do occur appear more opportunistic than conviction-driven. Even the valuation spreads between major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Bitcoin reflect this cautious approach, with the ETH/BTC ratio dipping below 0.05 to 0.0486, signaling a flight to quality even within the digital asset class.
