Saturday marked a significant milestone in the Bitcoin landscape as the halving event saw the miner rewards halve from 6.25 Bitcoin per block to 3.125 BTC. Despite the immediate reduction in payouts, historical precedents and expert analyses suggest that such halvings are likely precursors to substantial price surges in Bitcoin due to a “supply shock,” where the rate at which new BTC enters circulation diminishes sharply.
Experts are particularly focused on the potential outcomes as we approach the next halving in 2028. Pav Hundal from Swyftx shared insights with Cointelegraph, pointing to historical data which shows tremendous gains following previous halvings — from a staggering 60,000% increase in 2013 to a still impressive 2,000% in 2021. Hundal predicts that this pattern will not only continue but possibly result in a price doubling or even tripling by 2028, potentially pushing Bitcoin prices to the vicinity of $120,000.
In contrast, more bullish forecasts come from Henrik Andersson of Apollo Crypto, who speculates that the Bitcoin price could soar to around $200,000 before the next halving, spurred by increasing institutional acceptance and the influence of newly approved spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S., which he believes could attract approximately $65 billion in net inflows during the current cycle.
Meanwhile, Caroline Bowler, CEO of BTC Markets, supports her optimistic outlook with external analyses from entities like Standard Chartered, projecting Bitcoin could hit as high as $200,000 by 2025. This prediction aligns with the observed market response to ETF involvement, affirming the positive trajectory.
However, the halving also brings to the fore the economic sustainability of mining. Concerns persist that the reduced rewards might render Bitcoin mining non-viable should prices dip below certain thresholds. A report from Cantor Fitzgerald highlighted that Bitcoin prices need to remain above $40,000 to keep the majority of publicly traded Bitcoin mining operations profitable. While current prices provide a cushion, a significant drop could indeed stir market anxieties regarding the viability of mining operations.
In response to these challenges, Andersson mentioned the potential for mining companies to diversify revenue streams through fee-generating applications like Ordinals and upcoming protocol launches, suggesting a shift towards more sustainable and diversified business models for miners.
From a broader perspective, Jonathon Miller of Kraken Australia views the halving as a benchmark of progress toward global crypto adoption, expressing hope that by the next halving, the penetration of cryptocurrency will have reached even the most technologically resistant groups.
The conversation about Bitcoin’s halving is not just about immediate economic impacts but also about the long-term evolution of the cryptocurrency market. As the industry continues to mature and adapt, the next halving could mark another pivotal moment in the journey toward widespread crypto integration and acceptance.
